Utah's political landscape could see a shakeup as legislators unveiled five congressional map proposals on Sunday. Each has the potential to create competitive battleground districts in the Beehive State for the first time in years.
The 10-member Legislative Redistricting Committee holds its first meeting Monday morning following Third District Judge Dianna Gibson's ruling last month that threw out the existing maps. Under a compressed timeline ordered by the court, they must publish their proposal for redrawing the boundaries by Thursday.
An analysis of precinct-level election data from Redistricter shows each map has the potential to create a seismic shift in the state's traditionally Republican electoral dynamics.
Four out of five proposed maps (A, B, D, and E) could theoretically flip at least one district to the Democratic presidential candidate in both 2020 and 2024.
Even though Republican Donald Trump would have carried the remaining three districts under those map proposals, the data suggests at least one of those seats might be competitive for a Democrat, as Trump's margin of victory would have been 11 points or less.
Trump dominated all four districts in the 2024 election, winning each by more than 19 percent.
Under map option C, Trump would have theoretically carried all four congressional districts in 2020 and 2024. However, two of those districts have the potential to become electoral battlegrounds, with his margin of victory under 7 points.
It’s not just presidential election results that suggest each of the map proposals could lead to competitive districts. Had the maps been in place during the 2022 U.S. Senate race, independent candidate Evan McMullin would have carried at least one district on each map and would have prevailed in two districts under map proposals A, C, D, and E.
Lee would have won three of four districts under map option B, but one of those would have been by less than one percent.
Republican Spencer Cox would have carried all four districts on every map during the 2020 gubernatorial contest by at least 8 points.
