⏰ Tick Tock
Days until Election Day (11/4/2025) - 71
Days to the start of the 2026 Utah Legislature (1/20/2026) - 148
Days until the 2026 midterm elections (11/3/2026) - 435
Days until the 2028 presidential election (11/7/2028) - 1,170
Why the gerrymandering fight may skip the 2026 election
Utah's political landscape hangs in the balance as a judge prepares to rule today on whether state legislators illegally gerrymandered Utah’s four congressional districts. But if redistricting advocates prevail, there’s still a maze of potential delays and roadblocks that could delay the redrawing of maps past the 2026 midterm elections.
In court filings, the lieutenant governor's office said that new maps would have to be in place before November-which seems like a fair request, given that candidates need to know what the maps look like before starting their campaigns.
The real deadline is January 2, 2026, the day that candidates start filing for office. After that, changing the maps would be nigh impossible because the election would have officially begun.
If the judge rules against the legislature, I would expect the strategy would be to find a way to delay acting on drawing new maps until after that date - which is just 130 days away.
The window for drawing new maps is likely even shorter than that. More realistically, the deadline is early to mid-December for lawmakers to come up with maps, hold hearings, convene a special session, and vote to implement them.
There are several ways to run out the clock before 2026.
It's likely the legislature will appeal any ruling against them to the Utah Supreme Court. The last time Utah's top court considered an aspect of this case, it took the justices a full year to issue a ruling. An appeal may not take as long, but it will eat up precious time.
If lawmakers are ordered to draw new maps, they would likely have to abide by the rules established by Prop. 4, the 2018 voter-approved ballot initiative that created Utah's independent redistricting commission. That means they could not consider where incumbents live or use partisan voter registration information. They also would have to work to keep cities, counties and other communities together as much as possible.
Utah lawmakers have a well-worn playbook to follow if they choose to resist court-ordered redistricting. Alabama's recent redistricting saga offers a telling preview of how partial compliance can be used as a delay tactic while appearing to follow the rules.
In 2022, a lawsuit claimed Alabama's congressional map was an illegal racial gerrymander because it had only one majority-Black district. A federal court agreed, and ordered the maps to be redrawn with a second majority-Black district. Those new maps were put on hold while the case was appealed to the Supreme Court, which lifted the pause in June 2023.
When Alabama lawmakers redrew the maps in July 2023, they defied the court's order. Instead of creating a second majority-Black district, they just raised the proportion of Black voters in a second district. The court rejected those maps and assigned a special master to redraw the boundaries.
The court-drawn maps were in place for the 2024 election, but are again being challenged in court.
If Utah lawmakers employ the same tactic by drawing maps that don't fully comply with court orders, that would create more delays.
History suggests the GOP-controlled legislature has little to fear from slow-walking new maps past the 2026 midterms. Utah voters have consistently returned them to power, refusing to punish them at the ballot box. There's nothing to suggest that this time will be any different.
Monday's political headlines
Utah and the West
Utah's redistricting ruling expected on Monday. [Fox 13]
Utah lawmakers to consider more solar power regulations and community benefits next year. [Utah News Dispatch]
Trump admin pulls nearly $62M in solar grants from Utah, leaving rural towns in the dark. [Salt Lake Tribune]
Outlook for utah's snowpack "not the greatest", experts say. [Fox 13]
Nation
President Donald Trump has long sought a Nobel Peace Prize, but he may not have enough support from the jury of five people who make the decision. [Washington Post]
National guard troops deployed to Washington, D.C. are now carrying firearms. [NBC News]
President Trump plans to end "cashless bail" in Washington, D.C. [Axios]
World
The Pentagon has quietly blocked Ukraine's long-range missile strikes on Russia for months. [Wall Street Journal]
South Korea's president, Lee Jae Myung, will meet face-to-face with President Trump for the first time on Monday. [Financial Times]
Economy
The historic drop in immigration is poised to dramatically reshape the U.S. economy. [Wall Street Journal]
Environment
Solar executives warn that Trump attack on renewables will lead to power crunch that spikes electricity prices. [CNBC]
