Republicans hold a supermajority in both houses of the Utah Legislature, and there won't be much drama in this year's Utah House and Senate races.
91 seats are on the November ballot, but fewer than a dozen elections could be considered competitive.
I looked at several factors to determine which legislative races are worth your attention on election night.
2022 margin of victory.
Several races decided by a few hundred votes in 2022 are expected to have razor-thin winning margins again this year.
2020 presidential and gubernatorial election results.
Two of the legislative seats on our list were carried by Republicans Donald Trump and Spencer Cox in 2020 but are currently held by Democrats.
There is one district currently in the GOP column that was carried by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.
Three districts on the list split their tickets in 2020, voting for both Biden and Cox.
Which U.S. Senate candidate carried the district in 2022?
Nine of the legislative seats on our list were carried by unaffiliated candidate Evan McMullin over Mike Lee in 2022. Seven of those are held by Republicans.
COMPETITIVE RACES
SD8
Todd Weiler (R) - Incumbent
Aaron Wiley (D)
Laren Livingston (Constitution)
Alisa Cox Van Langeveld (Unaffiliated)
Partisan makeup:
- GOP - 50.51%
- Democrat - 15.94%
- Unaffiliated - 28.41%
Weiler should win another term, but four candidates on the ballot could make this a race worth watching.
In 2020, Donald Trump defeated Democrat Joe Biden in the district by less than one percent. Two years later, independent U.S. Senate candidate Evan McMullin raced past Republican Mike Lee by nearly 15 points.
Weiler won re-election in 2020 by a whopping 87.8% because his only opponent was independent candidate Marci Campbell.
- 2022 U.S. Senate - McMullin +14.3%
- 2020 President - Trump +0.5%
- 2020 Governor - Cox +20.8%
HD10
Rosemary Lesser (D) - Incumbent
Jill Koford (R)
Partisan makeup:
- GOP - 40.51%
- Democrat - 17.91%
- Unaffiliated - 34.26%
It's a rematch of 2022, when Democrat Rosemary Lesser defeated Republican Jill Koford by a mere 500 votes.
Republicans believe they have a shot at knocking off Lesser, the only Democrat in the Utah Legislature from outside Salt Lake County.
- 2022 margin - D +4.34%
- 2022 U.S. Senate - McMullin +5.8%
- 2020 President - Trump +2.8%.
- 2020 Governor - Cox +15.1%.
HD26
Matt MacPherson (R) - Incumbent
Jeanetta Williams (D)
Partisan makeup:
- GOP - 34.61%
- Democrat - 22.07%
- Unaffiliated - 37.33%
This seat is one of the few districts carried by Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race and Republican Spencer Cox in the gubernatorial election.
Republican Matt MacPherson assumed the seat after Quinn Kotter resigned last year. He faces NAACP Utah President Jeanetta Williams, the Democratic nominee. Kotter narrowly defeated Democrat Elizabeth Weight by just 127 votes in 2022.
MacPherson was the GOP nominee in 2020, losing to Weight by 13 points in that election.
- 2022 margin - R +1.36%
- 2022 U.S. Senate - McMullin +5.4%
- 2020 President - Biden +3.5%
- 2020 Governor - Cox +8.6%
HD27
Anthony Loubet (R) - Incumbent
Dawn Stevenson (D)
Partisan makeup:
- GOP - 35.44%
- Democrat - 20.63%
- Unaffiliated - 37.21%
Republican Anthony Loubet flipped this seat in 2022, squeaking past Democrat Claire Collard by 67 votes.
Loubet should be a prohibitive favorite to win another term, but McMullin carrying the district over Mike Lee should worry his campaign.
- 2022 margin - R +0.72%
- 2022 U.S. Senate - McMullin +1.9%
- 2020 President - Trump +2.5%
- 2020 Governor - Cox +12.6%
HD30
Fred Cox (R)
Jake Fitisemanu (D)
Partisan makeup:
- GOP - 35.03%
- Democrat - 22.81%
- Unaffiliated - 35.35%
Republican Judy Weeks-Rohner won this seat in 2022 by just 366 votes. This year, she's challenging Democrat Karen Kwan in SD12.
Fred Cox was appointed to the Legislature in 2011. In 2012, after their seats were combined during redistricting, he was forced to run against incumbent Democrat Janice Fisher. Cox lost that election but was elected to the seat in 2014 after Fisher declined to run again. Mike Winder defeated Cox for the Republican nomination at the 2016 GOP convention. Cox unsuccessfully challenged Winder again in 2018.
Democrat Joe Biden carried the district by just under 4% in 2020, but Republican Spencer Cox won by 9.1% that year. Independent Evan McMullin defeated Republican Mike Lee by 9% in the 2022 U.S. Senate race.
- 2022 margin - R+3.6
- 2022 U.S. Senate - McMullin +9.0%
- 2020 President - Biden +3.78%
- 2020 Governor - Cox +9.1%
HD42
Clint Okerlund (R)
Travis Smith (D)
The seat is open after Republican Robert Spendlove declined to run for another term. It could be one of the most competitive races this year, as Democrats believe they have a good chance of flipping this seat.
The 2020 presidential race was a tie in this district, with Joe Biden and Donald Trump each receiving 47.9% of the vote. Evan McMullin carried the district by more than 10 points in the 2022 U.S. Senate race.
In 2022, Democrats did not field a candidate in the district, giving Spendlove an easy win over a pair of 3rd party candidates.
- 2022 margin - R+36.1%
- 2022 U.S. Senate - McMullin +10.7%
- 2020 President - Tie
- 2020 Governor - Cox +18.6%
Races that would be massive upsets but are still worth paying attention to on election night.
SD12
Democrat Karen Kwan, the incumbent, should be considered the favorite to finish the final two years in the term of former Sen. Karen Mayne, who stepped down in 2022.
Kwan faces Republican Judy Weeks Rohner, who is attempting to jump to the Utah Senate after one full term in the House.
Unaffiliated and registered Republicans outnumber Democratic voters in this district, which went for Joe Biden by 9.5% in 2020. Evan McMullin carried the district by nearly 12 points in 2022.
HD3
Longtime Republican Dan Johnson is retiring from this northern Utah district. Republican Jason Thompson is favored to replace him.
Thompson faces unaffiliated candidate Patrick Belmont, who ran in this district two years ago as a Democrat, losing to Johnson by just 1,400 votes.
Donald Trump and Spencer Cox carried this district by double digits in 2020, but GOP Sen. Mike Lee's winning margin was only 2.8% in 2022.
Most of the. voters in the district are registered Republicans but make up fewer than half of all voters.
HD39
Republican incumbent Ken Ivory should be the favorite to win another term over unaffiliated challenger Jessica Wignall, but it might be closer than expected.
Donald Trump carried the district by under 5 points in 2020, while Evan McMullin carried this seat by 1.5% over Mike Lee in 2022.
Registered Republicans account for about 42% of all voters in the district. 35% are unaffiliated, and 23% are Democrats.
HD43
There are some whispers among Republicans that Rep. Steve Eliason might be in trouble this year, as Donald Trump carried the district in 2020 by fewer than five points. He faces Democrat Jason Barber.
Two years ago, Eliason won re-election by more than 14 points, but Evan McMullin carried the district by 13 points over Mike Lee that year.
- 2022 margin - R+14.3
- 2022 U.S. Senate - McMullin +13.1
- 2020 President - Trump +4.0%
- 2020 Governor - Cox +13.1%
